Numbers to Know- Windermere Economics with Jeff Tucker

Key Numbers at a Glance

$115/barrel Oil Price (Apr 7) Double the price at the start of 2026 — driven by the ongoing war in Iran, now in its second month.

178,000 Jobs Added (March) The strongest single month for job gains since late 2024 — but part of an 11-month streak of ups and downs.

~6.5% 30-Year Mortgage Rate Up nearly half a point from multi-year lows reached in late February, back to where rates stood last spring.

964,000 Active Listings (End of March) About 8% more than a year ago — buyers are gaining options heading into summer.

Why are mortgage rates going back up after they dropped earlier this year?

Rates briefly fell to multi-year lows in late February, but the combination of rising energy costs and the Federal Reserve holding off on rate cuts has pushed them back up. At roughly 6.5%, rates are now similar to where they were last spring and last summer. The ongoing conflict in Iran is a major driver — energy shocks tend to feed inflation, and that keeps rates elevated.

Is this a good time to buy, or should I wait for rates to drop?

That depends on your timeline and goals — but here's the honest picture: rates are unlikely to drop significantly in the near term. With a strong jobs report giving the Federal Reserve cover to hold rates steady, cuts aren't imminent. On the flip side, inventory is growing (up 8% year-over-year), which means

more options and less frantic competition than buyers faced in recent years. More supply can mean more negotiating room.

Are there more homes available than there used to be?

Yes. At the end of March there were 964,000 active listings nationwide — more than at this point in 2020 and about 8% above last year. Jeff Tucker notes this trend may actually be accelerating. If inventory keeps growing through summer, buyers could find themselves with a real range of options — which is a meaningful shift from the tight market of recent years

Does the energy crisis affect my home purchase in any way?

It does, indirectly. Higher oil prices raise the cost of building materials and transportation, which can influence new home construction costs. More immediately, energy price inflation influences the broader economic picture that drives mortgage rates. It's worth being aware of, but it shouldn't stop you from moving forward if you're financially ready and find the right home.

What does a strong jobs report mean for me as a buyer?

A healthy job market is generally good news — it signals economic stability, which can give you and your lender more confidence. The tradeoff is that strong jobs data reduces urgency for the Fed to cut rates, which keeps mortgage rates higher for longer. Think of it this way: a strong economy supports your ability to buy; it just doesn't lower your borrowing cost right now.

With inventory up 8%, is it harder to sell my home right now?

More competition does mean buyers have more to compare yours to — and that's worth taking seriously. Jeff Tucker's advice: this is still a busy spring selling season, but buyers are comparison-shopping. Pricing strategy, presentation, and working with an experienced agent all matter more when there are more listings to compete with. Putting your best foot forward is not optional right now — it's the strategy.

Should I be worried about the market shifting?

"More balanced" is the phrase Tucker uses — not a crash, not a buyer's market, but conditions that are evening out after years of strong seller advantage. Higher mortgage rates are dampening buyer urgency during what is usually the hot spring season. That's a meaningful shift. But homes that are priced well and presented well are still selling. The key is having a realistic read on where the market actually is.

How should the rising oil prices factor into my selling decision?

Oil prices affect the macro economy, not your home's value directly. However, if energy costs continue to climb, they add to inflationary pressure — which the Fed responds to by keeping rates elevated. That

keeps some buyers on the sidelines. The practical implication: don't expect a surge of rate-driven buyer urgency in the near term. Price and market your home as if buyers have choices, because they do.

Is the inventory growth a problem for sellers, or could it level off?

Tucker acknowledges it's too early to call a turning point, but the 8% year-over-year inventory gain now matches what he reported in February — ending a trend of slowing growth. That suggests inventory may be picking back up rather than tapering off. Sellers should plan for a market where buyers have options through the summer. That means strategic pricing, great listing photos, and an agent who knows how to position your home competitively.

With jobs looking strong, are buyers still out there?

Yes — and that's actually reassuring. A 178,000-job gain in March means the workforce is still growing and consumers still have income. Qualified buyers are in the market. The challenge is that higher rates have raised monthly payments enough to price some buyers out or slow their decision-making. But strong employment means motivated, capable buyers still exist. Your job — and your agent's job — is to make sure your listing earns their attention.

The Bottom Line

Global tensions are driving real estate conditions right now — not just local supply and demand. Oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's rate decisions are all interconnected. For buyers, more inventory and stabilizing conditions create opportunity. For sellers, the era of effortless multiple offers has shifted — strategy and presentation matter. Your Windermere agent is here to help you navigate all of it.