If you’ve been watching the market, you’ve probably noticed things feel… different.
To help make sense of it, Windermere’s Principal Economist, Jeff Tucker, recently shared insights on where the housing market is heading in 2026—covering everything from mortgage rates to inventory and home prices.
Here’s a simple breakdown in FAQ format 👇
Yes—but slowly.
After several years of very low home sales, activity is expected to pick up slightly in 2026. However, this isn’t a dramatic rebound—it’s more of a gradual shift toward a more balanced market.
Prices are expected to stay relatively flat.
Higher inventory is putting some downward pressure on prices, but many sellers are choosing to wait rather than accept lower offers. That’s helping prevent major price drops.
👉 What this means:
Yes—and this is a big shift.
Inventory is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels, giving buyers more options than they’ve had in years.
There’s also what economists call “shadow inventory”—homeowners who are waiting for the right moment to list.
👉 Translation:
More listings + longer time on market = more negotiating power for buyers
Rates are expected to decline slightly—but not dramatically.
Mortgage rates are projected to stay around the high 5% to low 6% range, with possible dips below 6% at times.
👉 Key takeaway:
Yes—but it’s easing.
Inflation has cooled compared to previous years, which is helping stabilize mortgage rates and improve buyer confidence. However, the Federal Reserve is still being cautious, so changes are happening gradually.
Current outlook: No.
Despite economic challenges in recent years, the expectation is that the U.S. will avoid a recession in 2026, which supports overall housing stability.
It’s becoming more balanced.
👉 This is what we call a transition market
👉 Opportunity is improving—but strategy still matters
👉 The homes that stand out are still winning
According to Jeff Tucker, 2026 isn’t about big swings—it’s about stability returning to the market.
And honestly… that’s a good thing.
A more balanced market creates: